Our model gives Central Español a 29% chance to win this one, against 32% for a draw and 39% for Defensor Sporting.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 33% likelihood against 67% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Central Español have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Defensor Sporting have done so in 2 of their last 3.