Our model gives Celik a 64% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Velez.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Celik have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Velez have done so in 2 of their last 2.