Our model gives Ceará a 40% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Novorizontino.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ceará have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Novorizontino have done so in 1 of their last 2.