Our model gives Casuarina a 63% chance to win this one, against 14% for a draw and 23% for Palmerston Rovers.

Both teams are projected to score in 70% of simulations, against 30% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 83% likelihood against 17% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Casuarina have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Palmerston Rovers have done so in 2 of their last 2.