Our model gives Casuarina a 61% chance to win this one, against 16% for a draw and 23% for Garuda.

Both teams are projected to score in 66% of simulations, against 34% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 78% likelihood against 23% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Casuarina have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Garuda have done so in 4 of their last 4.