Our model gives Carmelita a 42% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Aserrí.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Carmelita have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Aserrí have done so in 0 of their last 1.