Our model gives Carlos Mannucci a 53% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Alianza Universidad.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Carlos Mannucci have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Alianza Universidad have done so in 0 of their last 1.