Our model gives Carlisle United a 39% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Worthing.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Carlisle United have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Worthing have done so in 2 of their last 2.