Our model gives Cardiff City a 60% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Watford.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Cardiff City have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Watford have done so in 0 of their last 1.