Our model gives Cardiff City a 53% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Swindon Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 66% likelihood against 34% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Cardiff City have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Swindon Town have done so in 1 of their last 1.