Our model gives Cardiff City a 55% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Charlton Athletic.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Cardiff City have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Charlton Athletic have done so in 2 of their last 2.