Our model gives Cancún a 60% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Alebrijes.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Cancún have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Alebrijes have done so in 1 of their last 4.