Our model gives Cambridge United a 53% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Wigan Athletic.

Both teams are projected to score in 42% of simulations, against 58% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 39% likelihood against 61% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Cambridge United have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Wigan Athletic have done so in 1 of their last 2.