Our model gives Caldas a 29% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 41% for Louletano.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 39% likelihood against 61% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Caldas have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Louletano have done so in 0 of their last 1.