Our model gives Caernarfon Town a 49% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Penybont.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Caernarfon Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Penybont have done so in 2 of their last 3.