Our model gives Caen a 38% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Bastia.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Caen have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Bastia have done so in 0 of their last 2.