Our model gives CA Lugano a 27% chance to win this one, against 32% for a draw and 41% for Berazategui.

Both teams are projected to score in 38% of simulations, against 62% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 31% likelihood against 69% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, CA Lugano have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Berazategui have done so in 0 of their last 4.