Our model gives Cúcuta Deportivo a 37% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Rionegro Águilas.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Cúcuta Deportivo have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Rionegro Águilas have done so in 2 of their last 2.