Our model gives Buxoro University a 37% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Shurtan.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Buxoro University have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Shurtan have done so in 2 of their last 4.