Our model gives Buxoro University a 17% chance to win this one, against 17% for a draw and 66% for Respublika.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 66% likelihood against 34% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Buxoro University have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Respublika have done so in 4 of their last 5.