Our model gives Buxoro University a 10% chance to win this one, against 15% for a draw and 75% for Metallurg.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 64% likelihood against 36% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Buxoro University have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Metallurg have done so in 2 of their last 4.