Our model gives Buxoro University a 15% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 67% for Gazalkent.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 72% likelihood against 28% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Buxoro University have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Gazalkent have done so in 2 of their last 4.