Our model gives Buxoro a 17% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 56% for Neftchi.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Buxoro have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Neftchi have done so in 2 of their last 4.