Our model gives Bury a 54% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 25% for Curzon Ashton.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Bury have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Curzon Ashton have done so in 2 of their last 3.