Our model gives Burnley a 42% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Derby County.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Burnley have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Derby County have done so in 2 of their last 2.