Our model gives Bunyodkor a 38% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Surkhon Termez.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Bunyodkor have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Surkhon Termez have done so in 1 of their last 4.