Our model gives Bucheon 1995 a 47% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Gwangju.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Bucheon 1995 have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Gwangju have done so in 2 of their last 5.