Our model gives Bristol City a 46% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Watford.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Bristol City have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Watford have done so in 0 of their last 1.