Our model gives Bragantino a 54% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Grêmio.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Bragantino have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and Grêmio have done so in 1 of their last 5.