Our model gives Bradford City a 50% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Burnley.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Bradford City have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Burnley have done so in 0 of their last 1.