Our model gives Boyacá Chicó a 28% chance to win this one, against 32% for a draw and 40% for Once Caldas.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 36% likelihood against 64% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Boyacá Chicó have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Once Caldas have done so in 3 of their last 5.