Our model gives Boyacá Chicó a 44% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Alianza Petrolera.

Both teams are projected to score in 42% of simulations, against 58% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 36% likelihood against 64% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Boyacá Chicó have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Alianza Petrolera have done so in 2 of their last 3.