Our model gives Botev Vratsa a 43% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Botev Plovdiv.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Botev Vratsa have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Botev Plovdiv have done so in 2 of their last 3.