Our model gives Botafogo SP a 41% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Cuiabá.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 36% likelihood against 64% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Botafogo SP have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Cuiabá have done so in 0 of their last 2.