Our model gives Botafogo SP a 33% chance to win this one, against 32% for a draw and 35% for Criciúma.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 38% likelihood against 62% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Botafogo SP have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Criciúma have done so in 0 of their last 2.