Our model gives Botafogo a 53% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Grêmio.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Botafogo have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Grêmio have done so in 0 of their last 1.