Our model gives Botafogo a 43% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Fluminense.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Botafogo have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Fluminense have done so in 1 of their last 5.