Our model gives Boston River a 46% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Atlético Progreso.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Boston River have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Atlético Progreso have done so in 1 of their last 2.