Our model gives Borussia Dortmund II a 59% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 20% for Köln II.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Borussia Dortmund II have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Köln II have done so in 1 of their last 2.