Our model gives Borac Banja Luka a 73% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 8% for Velez.

Both teams are projected to score in 39% of simulations, against 61% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Borac Banja Luka have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Velez have done so in 2 of their last 2.