Our model gives Bohemians a 63% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Longford Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Bohemians have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5, and Longford Town have done so in 3 of their last 4.