Our model gives Bohemians a 62% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Drogheda United.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Bohemians have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5, and Drogheda United have done so in 2 of their last 4.