Our model gives Bogotá a 32% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 39% for Patriotas Boyacá.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Bogotá have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Patriotas Boyacá have done so in 2 of their last 2.