Our model gives Bogotá a 36% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Deportivo Pasto.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Bogotá have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Deportivo Pasto have done so in 1 of their last 1.