Our model gives Boca Unidos a 54% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Defensores Pto. Vilelas.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Boca Unidos have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Defensores Pto. Vilelas have done so in 2 of their last 3.