Our model gives Boca Juniors a 62% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Lanús.

Both teams are projected to score in 38% of simulations, against 62% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Boca Juniors have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 6, and Lanús have done so in 3 of their last 5.