Our model gives Blooming a 71% chance to win this one, against 15% for a draw and 14% for Universitario de Vinto.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 74% likelihood against 26% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Blooming have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and Universitario de Vinto have done so in 2 of their last 5.