Our model gives Bjarg a 53% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 26% for Arendal.

Both teams are projected to score in 65% of simulations, against 35% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 69% likelihood against 31% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Bjarg have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Arendal have done so in 4 of their last 4.