Our model gives Berga a 71% chance to win this one, against 15% for a draw and 14% for Karlshamn.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 76% likelihood against 24% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Berga have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Karlshamn have done so in 3 of their last 3.