Our model gives Berazategui a 51% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Mercedes.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Berazategui have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Mercedes have done so in 0 of their last 1.